Tag Archives: Primaries

Popularity Contest: “Barack Obama for Student Council President”

Saturday, April 5, 2008

“If, on the other hand, we thought of the campaign as if we stockholders hiring someone to be our national CEO, Senator Clinton would win hands down.”

Just when I was beginning to enjoy being an adult, this campaign for President has made me feel like I’m back in high school.  It was a place where people were elected to Student Council based almost exclusively on their popularity, with little regard for capability.  There were no real issues, and the Council had no authority, so it didn’t matter.  Running for President of the United States should be different.

Just because we call it a “popular vote” doesn’t necessarily suggest that we don’t care about the ability of the candidate to actually do something.  I say that knowing full well that our current President was elected based entirely upon his popularity, having not the slightest idea what he was doing.  So how’s that worked out for us?

Barack Obama is popular.  Hillary Clinton is not.  If this were high school, he’d be elected.  If, on the other hand, we thought of the campaign as if we stockholders hiring someone to be our national CEO, Senator Clinton would win hands down.

Last month, the Obama campaign raised a whopping $40 million through hundreds of thousands of individual contributions averaging less than $100.  (The Clinton campaign raised $20 million, which is impressive, but chump change by Obama standards.)  Everybody feels very good about this because it suggests that a President elected without the need for special interest money will be free from its influence.  He or she will still have to deal with those special interests to get anything done, but won’t literally owe them anything.  In the world of compromise that is Washington, I’m not sure it makes any difference, but doing away with large contributions, personal or corporate, was the right thing to do.

Unfortunately, the effect of removing large contributions from the process has been to give a substantial advantage to the most popular candidate.  Make no mistake about it.  The fact that Barack Obama can outspend Hillary Clinton 2:1 in the remaining primaries will make a difference in the outcome of those elections.  It’s a difference that has nothing to do with anything more than sheer exposure.  Obama supporters may think they are part of a new age of politics, but they’re buying the election – probably of the wrong candidate – nonetheless.  Electing a President shouldn’t be on a par with letting advertising convince you to use one brand of deodorant over another.

It’s too late for this election, but there are some things we can do over the next four years before we nominate and elect another President to make popularity for popularity’s sake less of a factor.

For one thing, we need a national primary, no more than 30 days prior to the nominating conventions.  Popularity tends to dominate the early stages of any campaign.  It’s natural, like dating.  Superficial attributes are the first thing you notice.  Getting to know someone takes time.  People who voted, and delegates who were elected in the early primaries may have changed their minds by the time the last primaries and conventions are held months later.

Second, do away with caucuses.  Caucuses discourage the participation of voters who prefer, and have every right to a secret ballot, who may not feel comfortable asserting themselves or being exposed to intimidation by more ardent advocates in a public, sometimes rowdy venue, and who simply may not be available during the relatively brief time during which the caucus is held.  I’m sorry to demean the style of many fellow Americans – not that sorry, actually – but caucuses in this day and age are a joke, a poor, not stellar or classic interpretation of democratic process.

And we need to replace all personal or corporate contributions, large or small, direct or through political action committees, with public campaign funding.  Based on some reasonable qualification process, give the serious candidates the money they need to run a campaign sufficient to acquaint the voting public with their programs, experience and personality – but let them allocate those funds as they see fit.

Let’s put the candidates on equal footing in so far as campaign financing is concerned, and leave it to them to win or lose the election based on more substantive issues.  Whatever the source of their money, you don’t want someone buying an election by overwhelming his opponent with media exposure.  As for the miracle of Internet campaign funding, people should be voting with their voices and at the polls, not with their wallets.

We want a popular vote, not a popularity contest.  In politics, it is not true that you get what you pay for.


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Unlikely Voters

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Turnout for this year’s Presidential primaries has been higher than usual, but still nothing to write home to Mom about.  Among the non-caucus primaries to date, New Hampshire was the standout with an estimated 52.48% of eligible voters going to the polls.  (That’s based on a statistic called “VEP” which stands for estimated “Voting Eligible Population.”)  The closest other state primary was Massachusetts with 38.71%.  New York was the worst performer at 18.83%.  In the other 20 states, voter turnout ranged from 19.25% in Louisiana to 32.57% in Illinois.  Of the total 23 non-caucus primaries held so far, 13 didn’t even manage to turnout 30% of eligible voters.  Six didn’t even make 25%.  How pathetic.  We are a nation where the minority rules.

Why don’t more people vote in the primaries?  For one thing, in some states registered independents, like me, can’t vote in the primaries, but that effect has got to be minor.  The fact that there is no national law requiring employers to give employees time off with pay to vote is a big deal, probably affecting the lower half of the economy, and hourly workers in particular, to a greater extent.  (If we believe the media analysts, more of the people not showing up are more likely Clinton than Obama supporters.)

Understandably, the polls that the candidates use to understand the electorate, and which the media show us with reckless disregard for their impact on voter opinion, these polls are of “likely voters.”  Results identify the percentage of people who say they are going to vote who currently favor this or that candidate, or who admit to being undecided.  There’s so much room for error.  Even if the polls are valid today, the election isn’t, today that is.  Precisely how likely are these people to vote?  And how sure of your preference do you need to be for your response to classified for any specific candidate, or still up for grabs?  Naturally, the campaigns focus their pitch on the undecided, because they’re easier to convince than someone who has already decided, who actually has to change his or her mind to vote for you.

I’m wondering, if by focusing on the undecided, if the campaigns are missing the boat.  You’ve probably heard the term “GOTV,” Get Out The Vote.  Political party regulars have long known the importance of getting their party’s voters to the polls, although crossover voting has become increasingly common.  The trick, obviously, is making sure the voters you get to the polls are actually voting for your candidate, which is easier said than done.  Even during the general election, like the one we’re about to have, when it’s one party against the other, and the contrast between the Republican and Democrat candidates is great, getting out the vote is a process requiring considerable finesse.

In the Bush-Kerry Presidential election of 2004, national turnout was 60.7%, which I understand was higher than it had been since 1968 when Nixon narrowly defeated Humphrey against the backdrop of the Kennedy and King assassinations, and the war in Viet Nam.  60.7%.  Round numbers, that’s twice that, or better, than the voter turnout this primary election season.  Forget about “likely voters” and the “undecided” among them, what about the approximately 30% of eligible voters who are going to vote in November, but not now?

What does a candidate have to do to get these people who would have voted for her or him in the Fall, off their tushes now?  With the Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries coming up, you’d think Senator Clinton’s campaign management would be asking itself that very question.  The answer has got to be contrast.  I’ve thought about it, and it’s got to be that November voters just don’t perceive the difference between the Democratic (or Republican) candidates to be all that great.  As long as one of them – Senator Clinton or Senator Obama – wins in the fall, they’re okay.  Other than that, these one-time-only voters can’t be bothered.

I don’t know, Senator Clinton if you’re listening, if I were trying hard to stop the rock star momentum of my opponent, and no one seemed to care that I was more qualified to be President, I think I’d spend some quality time pitching the differences between me and Senator Obama directly and explicitly, not just to the undecided among the likely voters, but to the voters who haven’t cared enough to participate in the primaries.  Call them on it, in no uncertain terms.