Category Archives: Foreign Policy

“Or what?”

“The power of moral suasion is minimal.  Talk is cheap, and everyone knows it.”
Saturday, August 16, 2008

President Bush is fond of telling other countries – Russia, for example, in the context of its invasion of Georgia sovereign territory – that they should or shouldn’t do this or that, often intimating that he is personally offended by their behavior.

In deference to President Bush who is a particularly poor speaker, his counterparts through history and contemporaries in other countries may be more eloquent, but no more effective.  The simple rule, if you’ll pardon the dangling preposition, is that countries will do what they can away with.  The power of moral suasion is minimal.  Talk is cheap, and everyone knows it.

Who cares what President Bush, or we or world opinion thinks?  Does anyone believe for a second that Prime Minister Putin gives a you-know-what about how we react, that he can’t anticipate our rhetoric, and doesn’t discount the effect of our shock and alarm to zero?

Consider the following excerpts from President Bush’s comments on the subject which he delivered Wednesday, August 13, 2008…

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Speechless: The Barack Obama Response to a Terrorist Attack

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Could be – although I certainly hope not – that we’re about to have one of those 3 o’clock in the morning moments Senator Clinton talks about.

Ayman Al-Zawahri, Al Qaeda’s second in command under Osama Bin Laden, has released a video which differs from those he and Mr. Bin Laden have produced previously.  According to one analyst I saw interviewed on MSNBC yesterday, the video seemed rushed, did not come through the usual channels and, most strikingly, used remarkably direct language in the way it seemed to literally give orders for attacks on the United States and Israel.  Who knows what all this means, but it got me thinking.  What if there is an attack before the convention, before the Democratic nominee is selected?  What difference will it make?

Senator Obama will find it difficult to resist the opportunity to remind voters that he opposed the use of military force in Iraq from the start, even when it made no sense in light of threats to our security which he acknowledged in the same October 2, 2002 speech.  The fact that the wisdom of his opposition to the use of military force in Iraq is convenient hindsight will be lost in the excitement of the moment.  (See “Reckless Endangerment” posted February 23.)  He will want to tell us that the attack might have never happened had we focused our attention on Afghanistan instead, but may not for fear voters will be annoyed by his taking advantage of the attack to further his campaign.

He’ll give one of his trademark, feel good “Obama Knows Best” speeches to divert our attention from the question at hand:  The attack has happened.  You’re President of the United States.  What specifically do you do?  “This is not a drill,” will be the message that threatens to take him off his game.

Personally, I don’t have the slightest idea.  Depending upon the circumstances of the attack, I can imagine all manner of reactions which might be appropriate.  I’m sure both campaigns have anticipated an attack, and have prepared their candidates with responses which will be perfectly scripted to seem instinctive and unscripted, the way you would hope a seasoned Commander-in-Chief would be ready in any eventuality.

Senator Obama believes in talking to everyone, including the leaders of countries which may be outright enemies of our state.  Admirable, but unrealistic.  Even if Al Qaeda would agree to so much as a phone call with an American President, we really don’t want to talk to them.  To meet with Al Qaeda, particularly in the aftermath of an attack, is to give them status, to recognize them in a way which elevates their movement from criminal to something higher, more civil.

He can talk to the leaders of the countries where Al Qaeda is based, but to what end?  To convince them to do our job for us?  To tell them what Secretary Rice and others have made clear to them already?  And how much time is all this talking going to take?

If not talk, then what?  John McCain will tell the voters he supports the use of our military, if necessary, to find and dispatch the perpetrators, and to punish Al Qaeda in general.  It’s the Israeli concept of hit me, I’ll hit you back harder, words to live by which have gone a long way to protect a people surrounded by its enemies.

Nobody doubts that Hillary Clinton and John McCain would engage the military, certainly for a police action of the sort we’re discussing.  Barack Obama will have to agree or risk not seeming Presidential – and do it without whining about how we got into this mess.  Even more stifling, all three candidates will need to be careful not to undercut the current administration for which this scenario will be far from an academic exercise.  With a new administration just months away, our allies and enemies alike will want to wait to do business with the next Commander-in-Chief, particularly if they sense he might be naïve, inexperienced, and disinclined to use force.

Strip away the power of his rhetoric, hardly an effective weapon against terrorists, replace the exuberant crowds with a nation of worried families and concerned businesses.  What does that leave for him to demonstrate the insight and leadership he’s so often promised?


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Underestimating McCain

“Of the three people running for President, he’s the only one to have thought that far ahead.”

Saturday, March 8, 2008

He doesn’t speak particularly well.  He tells us we could be in Iraq forever.  He keeps referring to us as “My friends” which I find really annoying.  Foreign policy and national security, maybe, but what if anything does he know about the economy?  (And don’t think for a minute that a strong economy isn’t essential to our national security.)  Did I mention he’s old?  At 72, there’s a significantly higher probability that he’ll be a one term President which I think is a real problem for getting things done in Washington where he may well be viewed as a lame duck on day one.  (…not to be confused with our current President, “Daffy Duck.”)

So what in the world do the Democrats have to worry about?  John McCain may be right about Iraq – and about the larger issue of how to handle the threat of terrorism.

The question is not whether or not we should pull out of Iraq.  No.  The question we should be asking Senators Clinton (my personal favorite) and Obama is what do we do after we pull out?

What do we do if well armed and well funded insurgents threaten to overthrow the Iraqi government in our absence?

Even worse, suppose there’s no violence involved, but that, through its own internal political process, the leadership and composition of the Iraqi government changes, becomes fervently anti-American.  It is, after all, the right of any sovereign, democratic nation to make whatever foreign and domestic policy it deems to be in its own best interests – even if that includes forming anti-American alliances with the likes of Iran.

What if the Iraqi government finds itself unable or, more to the point, unwilling to deal with anti-American terrorist elements operating within its national borders?

What do we do if any or all of this happens, and the usual talks and sanctions fail?

Nothing? Something?  No kidding, what do we do?  You’re President of the United States.  What do you do?

You see, this isn’t a problem John McCain faces.  Senator McCain is already sure that one or all of the above are going to happen if we leave.  When you think about it, he’s the consummate executive.  He doesn’t care what’s happened up until now, not really.  He’s only concerned about what happens next, and the relative costs and benefits of pulling out versus staying put.

If we stay there, maintaining the peace as best we can, we stand to keep Iran at bay while taking advantage of our in-country position to attack terrorist elements.  (They may not have been there under Saddam Hussein, but they are now, and we need to deal with them.)  Staying buys the government and economy the time to stabilize, to mature to the point of self-sufficiency.  The downside is the loss of lives, ours and Iraqis, and that our very presence encourages anti-American sentiment in the region.

If we pull out, well then, for all intents and purposes, we’re not going back any time soon, and whatever is going to happen in Iraq and the region is going to happen without us.  Simply put, Senator McCain believes that the current costs of a continuing presence are less than the future costs if we walk.  It’s just that simple.

The only way you counter his point is to argue that none of the negative futures is going to happen.  And you don’t know that.  In fact, you don’t even believe it, do you?

Unfortunately for whoever runs against him, Senator McCain understands that it’s sometimes more practical to continue a foreign occupation, then it is to start a new one – and that this is one of those times.  I suspect a majority of American voters will agree with him – particularly if something happens to threaten our security between now and November.  Of the three people running for President, he’s the only one to have thought that far ahead.

Game, set, match, McCain.

The Importance of Dirt for American Foreign Policy

Saturday, December 29, 2007

I’m not sure exactly what’s happening in Iraq.  The level of violence is down from what it was a few months ago, which is good.  Down maybe, but far from over.  I can’t tell whether or not things are really getting better, in spite of our being there or because of it, or if the bad guys are laying low for a while, maybe until after we elect a new President, hoping we’ll declare victory and pull out.  All I know is that Iraq is not the first time, and won’t be the last that our country chooses to engage in long-term military action for reasons of national security, and to help oppressed people in other countries.  (Shame on us were we to undertake such drastic measures for any other purposes.)

Without commenting on whether or not we should be in Iraq, or anywhere else for that matter, I’d like to make an observation that may help our foreign policy be more effective, and much less costly, both financially and in terms of the life on all sides that may be lost in the process.  For the record, it’s not just about lives disrupted, or military and civilian casualties.  It’s also about the rippling effects upon families, friends and communities to which the people most directly affected would have contributed in their own unique and special ways.  Life is more than a statistic on the 6 o’clock news.

The genesis of this particular idea goes way back to when I was a kid.  It was the moment when I first began thinking seriously about the importance of dirt.  I remember staying up past my bedtime one night, flashlight in hand, reading the original Dracula, by Bram Stoker.  The story, as I remember, was told in the form of letters written to his fiancé by Jonathan Harker, a young attorney who traveled on business to meet with the Count in Transylvania.  At some point in their relationship, there came a time when Dracula moved to London – presumably because there were more, better tasting people there.  I remember that it wasn’t a question of riding coach (literally) or first class.  No, he was shipped there in a coffin filled with soil from his native land.  Somehow I got the point, although it most certainly wasn’t the one Mr. Stoker had intended to make.  “Wow,” I whispered to myself, “This guy’s dirt is so important to him, he not only takes it with him, he sleeps in it.”  It was a concept that was weird and enlightening, both at the same time.

Decades later when my father died, I wondered if my mother, who was born in Annapolis where they had lived together for most of the 42 years they were married, would ever move to Florida, wherever, or even to nearby Virginia where I lived at the time, to be closer to my family.  The answer was, “No.”  My mother would never leave the soil where she was raised.  Other people, sure, but not my mother, and I understood that, too.  I am, after all, my mother’s son.  As for me, I like Maryland.  I like the way it has seasons, but that none of them is too severe.  I like the look of the place, and the sound of people who live here.  My dirt is nice, quality dirt that makes me feel comfortable – and I have everything to lose, and nothing much to gain from making a mess of it.

I’ve often wondered if that was the problem when the Watts riots occurred, and asked myself at the time, “Do people with quality dirt ever trash and burn their own homes and businesses?”

Have you ever noticed, when they show footage from Iraq, how the buildings in the background are rubble, and how desolate the place looks?  Ever wonder how these people get by given the way their economy has been decimated by years of civil strife and warfare?  Could it be that people living in these circumstances are more likely to foment anger and even violence against each other and foreigners?  I think so.  I think the higher quality your dirt, literally and figuratively speaking, the more you have to lose and the less likely you are to put it at risk whatever your personal politics.

The implications of this simple observation are that maybe we should be spending our time and money, and far fewer of our lives, helping these people to build their economies.  I’m not talking just lip service here.  Far from it.  What I’m suggesting is a major change in the way in which we relate to some of the countries that represent a long-term threat to our country and its allies.

Start with the basic utilities we’ve promised but largely failed to deliver in Iraq, give them the agricultural technology and skills to feed their families, and the plants and equipment necessary to produce, for themselves, the everyday stuff of life.  Let’s help them develop the employment and income these people so desperately need.  Better to build than to destroy, and let the seeds of capitalism grow, on their own, into the democracy and civility which are our best hope for national security.

How would we do all this?  Certainly not by giving the governments of Iraq and other countries money we can’t control and which would likely be misdirected.  No.  I recommend that we do it through our private sector, under the protection of our military if necessary, and it will be – but let protecting our business projects, largely manned and managed by the people we are helping, be our military’s primary objective.

Just to be clear, I’m not talking about using large government contractors, or even about private sector projects funded by our government.  Nor is this about oil.  Enough about oil already.  I don’t want to use our economy to develop and take control of the wealth of another country.  The other country isn’t ours for the taking, period.  What it is, this other country, is a market.  This is about American businesses – large, medium and small, from all sectors of our economy – spending their own money to help people in another country for all the usual self-serving reasons for which our businesses do anything.

All I want our government to do is offer American businesses:  Support through inter-governmental channels to enable private company investments in the foreign country.  Tax and other financial incentives, such as subsidized interest rates and loan guarantees, to make those investments – to give them the higher gross yields they’ll need to make from operations under admittedly difficult circumstances.  And highly focused military support, if necessary, to protect our business personnel when they are in-country, and the industrial and commercial projects they develop.  And then I want our government to leave well enough alone, and let business happen, private, non-government business — as long as our technologies are limited to those that won’t come back and bite us in the tush.  Otherwise, let the free market do what it does best.  Without a doubt, we need our military for self-defense, but it is by no means our only, or even most potent weapon in every situation, particularly when there is a long-term problem which brute force is not likely to resolve, and where aggressive military action may be counterproductive.

Give our companies tax and other financial incentives to build someone else’s economy, and to grow ours in the process – not government contractors, but the same large and smaller companies which provide the services, farm the land, and produce the products we consume every day here in the United States.  Use the power of our economy to generate jobs, income and profits here, by going into the business of helping people over there.  Let’s see if we can help these people improve their own dirt, and leave it to them to make the political and social changes necessary to preserve and continue to improve the quality of their lives.

Isn’t it better to train people to do productive, income producing work in their own economies, instead of having someone else train them to be terrorists?  Isn’t it smarter to give them a reason to work with us, rather than an excuse and the spare time to listen to those who would blame us for all the problems they’re having?

Do we do all this because we’re nice people?  Sure, but there are selfish reasons, too, in the benefits that would accrue to our own economy, the money and lives we would save, the potential for reduced threats to our national security, and for the enhanced standing in the community of nations we would deserve.  It’s one thing to ask other countries to join with us in combat, quite another to ask that they help themselves by joint venturing our investments in the people of a struggling nation.