Category Archives: Federal Reserve

The Irony of the AIG Bailout

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

As we all know by now, a great deal of the current mess in our financial markets has been caused by the financing, insuring and sale of subprime “paper.” We’re talking about loans made to consumers whose credit histories and incomes did not, in and of themselves, justify the credit they received. Not surprisingly, these loans have failed at a high rate for which the banks which financed them, the companies which insured them – companies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG – and the Wall Street firms which purchased them – like Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers – were unprepared to handle.

Precisely because subprime loans are so risky, they would be made at unusually high rates of interest unless they’re insured or sold. Insured loans and loans which lenders sell are less risky, which encourages them to make loans they wouldn’t otherwise approve, bringing home ownership within the reach of Americans at the lower end of the credit spectrum. The risk of failure is still the same. It’s just that a portion of that risk has been passed through to the insurers like AIG and to Wall Street firms who purchase packages of these subprime loans through what are called “securitizations.” By securitizing the loans they originate, the lender (a bank or mortgage company) sells its loans, transferring the risk to the hedge fund or investment banker that bought them.

Yesterday evening, at 8 PM, AIG accepted a proposal – as if it had any choice — whereby the Federal Reserve agreed to lend AIG $85 billion, at a high rate of interest, collateralized by a zillion dollars of assets which AIG needs to sell over the next two years to pay the government back.

Here’s the irony… In order to bail out a giant insurance company which is in trouble for insuring subprime mortgages (and making other questionable investments), our government has made its own subprime loan to a debtor whose ability to repay those $85 billion is questionable. And who stands behind the Fed? Who is to the Fed what AIG was to the banks that originated all those subprime loans, and to the Wall Street firms that bought them? We are.

So who’s left to bail us out?


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Question of the Day: “Ever get the feeling someone isn’t telling you something that’s really important?”

Monday, March 17, 2008 

“I smell desperation in the wind.” 

Since September 17, 2007, the Federal Reserve has lowered the Federal Funds Rate – the rate at which the Fed allows banks to borrow from each other, overnight, to maintain their reserves – from 5.25% to 3.00%.  In percentage terms, they’ve lowered the rate by a whopping 43% in just 6 months.  Word on some newscasts is that they are about to lower it again, perhaps by another full point, in order to protect our banking system until it can recover from the widespread collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

And did I mention that the Fed also lowered its Discount Rate, the rate at which member banks borrow from the Government, to just 3.25%?  It’s almost as inexpensive for banks to borrow money from the Fed, as it is from each other.

In addition to lowering rates, the Fed has also put up $200 billion in Federal securities as equity which Wall Street firms can use to protect themselves, in the hopes of preventing any other major players from doing “a Bear Stearns.”

I smell desperation in the wind.

If a rapid 43% reduction in the cost of money America’s banks need to maintain their reserves doesn’t solve the problem, and the rate is already at only 3.00%, what exactly happens if the banking system doesn’t respond to further reductions?

What is it, precisely, that the Fed is worried about?  These changes in the rates are just minor adjustments to the cost of funds.  The Fed isn’t just tweaking an otherwise healthy economy – Greenspan-style – to smooth out downturns while avoiding inflation.  This is looking more and more like triage in a war zone.

Hello, Fed?  Chairman Bernanke?  What is it you’re not telling us?  Just how bad is it?  The thing about lowering rates is that eventually you run out of room.  Is the problem you’re trying to solve bigger than the power of the tools at your disposal?  And if it is, then what?


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